Expert Details

Expert in Design of Experiments, Reliability, Quality, Accelerated Life Testing, Probability and Statistics

Expert ID: 108299 Massachusetts, USA

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Expert (rhymes with "hats off") has designed state of the art reliability and accelerated life testing software that is used throughout IBM. This software is incorporated within IBM's AGSS system, an interactive statistical graphics system that has been marketed by IBM since 1992. He has developed and implemented unique capabilities for the design of locally optimal accelerated life tests, and has presented and published papers on these topics, based on his research. He received an IBM Outstanding Technical Innovation award for his work in this area. He has provided extensive education and training in these areas, including the training of reliability engineers throughout IBM worldwide. Additionally, Expert designed and taught a course on Reliability and Quality Control at MIT, and he has conducted numerous public 5-day courses on Reliability and Accelerated Life Testing. He has also provided on-site training and consultation on Reliability and Accelerated Life Testing at major corporations. He has won Underwriters Laboratory approval for a client's product by designing an accelerated life test for the client and presenting the results to Underwriters Laboratory. This averted a costly 12-month delay in product approval.


Expert has designed and developed most of the statistical content of a major statistical graphics system (IBM's ASGG System). After retiring from IBM he developed unique software for statistical control of continuous manufacturing processes (where successive data points tend to be highly autocorrelated) as well as software for statistical design and control of discrete manufacturing processes. Methodology includes the design and construction of both Shewhart and Cusum control charts to achieve specified levels of alpha and beta risks, correction of control chart limits to account for autocorrelation, simultaneous plotting and analysis of multiple positional data, Capability Analysis, Pareto Analysis and a multiple factor Analysis of Means (ANOM). The continuous SPC software system (RollSPC) is applicable to products manufactured in a continuous roll, such as paper, plastics, metals and coatings, as well as to chemical and other batch processes. Expert produces and markets the RollSPC System, and has employed it in his seminars and in consultation with clients on these subjects.

Expert has expertise and experience in the design and analysis of full factorial, mixed factorial, and fractional factorial experiments; nested designs; central composite designs; and response surface analysis. He has designed software for these capabilities as part of IBMs "A Graphical Statistical System" (AGSS), and has provided client training and consultation in these areas. He has also published papers on the application of designed experiments to problems in computer science.


Having written his PhD dissertation on "Exact Distributions of Wilk's likelihood Ratio Statistic," Expert has considerable expertise in multivariate statistical analysis. He has published original tables of the distribution of Wilks' Likelihood Ratio Test in Biometrika Tables for Statisticians, Volume 2 and in Biometrika. He also published papers in the Journal of the American Statistical Association on the use of Expected Significance Levels (a concept that he originated) to compare the sensitivities of several competing multivariate tests. He taught a graduate level course in Multivariate Analysis in the Statistics Department at Yale University. He is currently working on applications of multivariate analysis to multivariate control charts with autocorrelated observations. He is very knowledgeable on topics such as multivariate likelihood ratio tests, T-Square and Chi-Square tests, principal component analysis, multiple discriminant analysis and canonical correlation analysis.

Expert is well-versed in probability theory as well as probability distributions commonly used in statistical applications, such as the Normal, Lognormal, Weibull, Extreme Value, Beta, Gamma, Poisson, Binomial, and Hypergeometric distributions. He has designed and implemented density, CDF, inverse CDF, and hazard functions for a large number of probability distributions, as well as functions for probability and hazard plot scaling, confidence intervals and tests of hypotheses. These are all included as past of IBM's AGSS System. He has consulted with clients on many industrial problems involving probabilistic formulation and solution of problems requiring probabilistic reasoning.


Expert has designed extensive least squares subsystems for IBM's AGSS system including: constrained non-linear regression and curve fitting, robust regression methods, regression diagnostics, residual analyses, four different types of regression confidence and prediction intervals, stepwise subset regression, and all possible regressions. This system has been widely used throughout IBM, and for graduate regression courses at MIT. He has co-authored a paper on "All Possible Regressions," dealing with computationally efficient methods for computing all possible subset regressions for data sets containing an arbitrary number of independent variables. Expert has extensive experience in fitting and testing both linear and nonlinear regression models.


In addition to his extensive education in statistics, Expert has taught courses in statistics at several universities and has also taught courses in applied statistics, reliability, statistical process control and design of experiments to engineers throughout IBM. He designed most of the statistical modules in a major statistical graphics system (IBM's AGSS System), and has consulted with clients in a number of areas of applied statistics. A great deal of his consulting work has involved statistical data analysis for a wide variety of applications. He has carried out large scale simulation studies in areas of character recogniton, computer disk accessing methods, operating system scheduling algorithms and algorithms for efficient management of free storage in computer operating systems. He has also employed Monte Carlo methods to compare the sensitivities of competing multivariate test statistics.

Expert began his studies of statistical quality control under Dr. W. Edwards Deming at New Yotrk University. After joining IBM, he hired Dr. Deming as a consultant and collaborated with him in assessing IBM's quality and reliability problems in its installed customer base. Expert has designed and developed all of the Quality Control modules contained in IBM's AGSS System, a major statistical graphics system used throughout IBM, and marketed by IBM to customers worldwide. Since retiring from IBM Research, he has designed, developed and marketed a unique statistical process control system using the AGSS System as a programming platform. A description of the system's capabilities appears above under the heading "Statistical Computer Software". Unique capabilities include facilities for: designing Shewhart and Cusum charts to satisfy user specified alpha and beta risks, and/or Average Run Lengths (ARL's); plotting of Shewhart and Cusum control charts and calculation of observed significance levels for several different runs tests; multi factor Analysis of Means (ANOM), an extremely useful analysis tool for uncovering sources of assignable causes; and automatic correction of control chart limits to account for variability due to autocorrelation. Expert has taught a course in Reliability and Quality Control at M.I.T., has trained IBM engineers in Statistical Quality Control, and has also trained and consulted with clients on quality control problems.

Expert studied the design and analysis of statistical surveys under Dr. W. Edwards Deming, author of two major books on the subject, at New York University. He hired Dr. Deming as a consultant to IBM and worked with him on the design of a sampling plan to monitor the performance of IBM equipment at customer sites. Expert taught a course on sampling at the Northeastern University Graduate School of Business. At IBM he designed and analyzed large scale market research and employee opinion surveys.

Expert has studied Time Series Analysis under Dr. T. W. Anderson, author of a major book on the subject, at Columbia University. He is knowledgable in the Box-Jenkins Time series methodology, and has applied time series methodology to the design of algorithms for handling autocorrelated data in construction of statistical quality control charts. He has consulted with clients on problems involving time series analysis.

Designed and analyzed accelerated life tests of carbon monoxide sensors for a manufacturer of such sensors, and used the analyses to quide the client through approval by Underwriter's Testing Lab. This saved the client 9 months of production that would have been suspended awaiting the standard 12 month testing certification. Carried out a series of Step Stress Accelerated Life Test analyses for a major gas and electric power supplier to assist them in policy decisions for replacement of underground electrical power cables. The software used to carry out the analyses was developed by Expert, and is the only known software for fitting and evaluating accelerated step stress models. Applied Fraction Defective Failure Models and probability theory to enable a major defense electronics company to identify the source of component failure within a complex guided missile assembly. The software, developed by Expert, is the only known software for fitting and evaluating fraction defective models.Assisted a semi-conductor test equipment manufacturer in determination of Gage Repeatabilty and Reproducibility for their test equipment, as applied to their customer's wafer fabrication. Worked with a major manufacturer of catalytic converters to evaluate test results for comparing two different catalytic converter designs and for determining sample size requirements for future product evaluations. These tests are very expensive to carry out, so that minimization of sampling requirements is crucial.

Expert may consult nationally and internationally, and is also local to the following cities: Boston, Massachusetts - Worcester, Massachusetts - Springfield, Massachusetts - Lowell, Massachusetts - Cambridge, Massachusetts - Brockton, Massachusetts - New Bedford, Massachusetts - Hartford, Connecticut - Manchester, New Hampshire - Providence, Rhode Island

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Education

Year Degree Subject Institution
Year: 1964 Degree: PhD Subject: Statistics Institution: Harvard University
Year: 1961 Degree: AM Subject: Statistics Institution: Harvard University
Year: 1952 Degree: MBA Subject: Statistics Institution: New York Univeristy (studied under W.E. Deming)
Year: 1950 Degree: BA Subject: Economics and Mathematics Institution: Brooklyn College

Work History

Years Employer Title Department Responsibilities
Years: 1992 to Present Employer: Undisclosed Title: Independent Statistical Consultant Department: Responsibilities: Expert has provided statistical consulting and training services to major corporations in areas of reliability, design of experiments, accelerated life testing, statistical process control and statistical data analysis and computation.
Years: 1955 to 1992 Employer: IBM Title: Research and Management Department: Responsibilities: He held a variety of positions in technical management, research, consulting and teaching in areas of Product Development, Optical Character Recognition, Reliability, Computer Performance Modeling, and Statistical Software Development.
Years: 1984 to 1985 Employer: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Title: Visiting Professor of Statistics Department: Responsibilities: Expert taught a graduate level mathematics course in Reliability and Quality Control.
Years: 1967 to 1968 Employer: Yale University Title: Visiting Associate Professor of Statistics Department: Responsibilities: He taught graduate level courses in Multivariate Analysis and Statistical Computing.
Years: 1965 to 1966 Employer: Harvard University Title: Lecturer on Statistics Department: Responsibilities: He taught a graduate level course in Statistical Model Building, using two experimental interactive computing systems. He published the results of this pioneering effort in the Journal of the American Statistical Association.

Career Accomplishments

Professional Appointments
Past director of American Federation of Information Processing Societies. Elected Fellow of the American Statistical Association.
Member of IEEE and ASQC.
Awards / Recognition
IBM Outstanding Technical Achievement Award.
Publications and Patents Summary
He has over 40 publications, book chapters, professional presentaions and IBM Research Reports.

Additional Experience

Expert Witness Experience
He has provided expert testimony before the Underwriters Laboratory on a customer critical issue leading to approval of the clients product.
Training / Seminars
1. Statistical Methods for Reliability and Accelerated Life Testing.

These seminars, which run 5 days, have been given publicly as well as on-site in the client's facilities. Software developed by Expert is used to demostrate the analyses.

2. Advanced Statistical Process Control for Roll Processes.

These are 2 day seminars that have been offered publicly. They deal with scanning sensor data that is recorded at multiple process positions, and is characterized by high levels of autocorrelation. Software developed by Expert is used to demonstrate the analyses.

3. Design of Experiments

This is a two day overview of DOE that has been given at customer sites, using software developed by Expert

Fields of Expertise

accelerated testing, accelerated thermal life testing, reliability testing, Weibull density function, reliability analysis, reliability prediction, quality reliability, failure analysis, life-prediction methodology, computer reliability prediction, statistical computer software, statistical process control software, floating-point processor, statistical design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi method experimental design, central composite design, Graphical Statistical System, multivariate statistical analysis, discriminant analysis, bivariate analysis, probability distribution, F distribution, lognormal distribution, Poisson distribution, binomial mathematical distribution, Bayesian probability, curve fitting, least squares method, linear regression, curvilinear regression function, regression analysis, non-linear regression, flexible statistical model building, applied statistics, engineering statistics, statistical data analysis, statistical computing, iterative method, Monte Carlo method, statistical simulation, statistical inference, sampling error, chi-square method, industrial plant statistical quality control, acceptance sampling, continuous sampling plan, cumulative sum control chart, machine capability study, gage R&R test procedure, process capability study, roll product statistical process control, statistical process control chart, statistical quality control, statistical process control, statistical survey, statistical sampling plan, statistical survey analysis, time-series analysis, underwriting, survey sampling, survey statistics, education statistics, manufacturing quality control, data processing equipment, design of experiments, fitting models to data, analysis of variance, failure distribution, failure rate, process capability index, process capability ratio, French curve, American Society for Quality Control, acceptable quality level, statistical estimation, receiver operating characteristic curve, binomial theorem, product reliability, normal distribution, statistical median, logarithmic scale, statistical degree of freedom, capability study, sampling plan, data correlation, survey design, statistical sampling, statistical method, reliability, computer processing, empirical curve, continuous distribution function, curve representative, mixture experiment, data processing, probability, confidence interval, density function, mathematical distribution, mathematical function, Weibull inference, surface fitting, statistics, skewed density function, quality control, process optimization, normal density function, nonparametric statistics, multivariate analysis, mathematical model, life testing, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, histogram, exponential density function, discrete distribution function, covariance

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