Expert in Energy: Oil, Gas and Power, e.g., New Technology Market Forecasting, Economics, and Prices
Expert ID: 730856 United Kingdom
As an energy economist and a chartered electrical engineer, Expert. Expert has a unique skill set covering both technical and economic issues. He knows how the energy sectors work from the process and technical efficiency perspective, as well as from the market perspective. This has enabled him to develop and create forecasts and participate in discussions in many markets especially ones that are less liquid such as in emerging markets or are thinly traded ones.
Expert. Expert focuses on energy initiatives such as clean energy (including renewable), carbon emissions, efficiency projects, and flaring reduction. He provides advisory services, litigation support, software, data and forecasting services. Expert also works part-time for the World Bank on clean development mechanisms (CDM), carbon issues and financing, market forecasting, flaring reduction initiatives, small scale gas processing, gas compressor/pipeline implementations and distributed power projects. He also provides expert advice to the EU DG Clima on modeling, policy and data issues. Expert has held a number of technical, commercial and strategic roles at BP Exploration (1982 – 1992). This was followed by 8 years with Arthur Andersen leading a consultancy practice within the Petroleum Services Group. After leaving Arthur Andersen, Expert. Expert worked for three years at PA Consulting developing risk management frameworks, developing forward curves for a variety of energy companies (oil, gas, chemicals and power) and modeling power markets. Most recently, he spent six years at PFC Energy where he headed the global gas and power group and the valuations and research and development (R&D) group.
Expert. Expert has been analyzing the effects of technology on the oil and gas and associated industries for around twenty years. In doing so he has compiled databases and costs of a large variety of direct and complimentary technologies, both for software and hardware.
Although the technology itself is interesting, Expert is typically concerned with the impact on the cash-flows and performance of businesses, including the valuation of new technologies in an industry context.
His work has included
- Creation of specific technologies data bases
- Has developed a "network based methodology" for identifying the knock on effects of technologies
- Used Delphi studies to estimate future reductions in costs and perfromance of particular technologies
- Reviewed and analyzed spends on R & D and its impact on
- Provided strategic technology advice and consulting to a medium size Oil and Gas company
- Valuation of various technologies eg. Gas to Liquids, LNG, FLNG, Seismic processing, FGTL, Fraccing
- Future world studies - Carbon Consequences and valuation
- Advised government policy on technology research including a plan for a technology city center.
- Adjusted long term oil forecasts to take account of future technology gains.
Report on Carbon Emissions
In 2010 Energy-Redefined undertook a major analysis of the crude emissions of some 6000-7000 oil fields around the world.
|Year: 1990||Degree: MBA||Subject: MBA||Institution: University of Strathclyde|
|Year: 1982||Degree: Bsc. (Hons)||Subject: Electronic Engineering||Institution: University of Southampton|
|Years: 2009 to Present||Employer: Undisclosed||Title: Founder||Department: Corporate|
Responsibilities:In 2009 Expert. Expert founded Energy-Redefined to focus on energy initiatives such as clean energy, carbon emissions, efficiency projects, and flaring reduction. This company provides advisory services, litigation support, software, data and forecasting services. Expert also works part-time for the World Bank on clean development mechanisms (CDM), carbon issues and financing, market forecasting, flaring reduction initiatives, small scale gas processing. and gas compressor/pipeline implementations. Expert is responsible for the day to day development of databases, models and consulting analysis.
|Years: 2003 to 2009||Employer: PFC Energy||Title: Head of Global Gas/Senior Director Valuations and R&D||Department: Gas , Corporate Advisory|
Responsibilities:During his last year at PFC Energy, Expert focused his efforts on developing a technology/ R & D business with particular emphasis on building databases, models and understanding the drivers of carbon emissions within the oil and gas industry. Prior to this, for 4-5 years Expert was Head of the Global
Gas Group in PFC Energy where he had P & L responsibility for a $3million business with ten professional consultants reporting directly to him. He provided direction to the group on a number of fronts related to the development of natural gas including climate change, LNG and price & demand forecasting.
- Wrote a detailed applied research paper for input into a R & D master plan. This included the analysis of a variety of technolgies in the context of the issues facing this emerging country. Expert used advanced network techniques to identify key technologies for investment.
- Assisted in the writing of an IPO document for Siesmic (oilfield) based technology company. Included market analysis, valuation and forecasts or cashflows of new technology.
- Technology strategy assessment for medium sized oil & Gas company. The purpose of the study was to assess the potential for disruptive technologies to drastically affect the company’s health.
-Analysis of the impact of Cap & trade Vs Carbon tax on oil and gas companies. Optimization of portfolios.
-Analysis of the effects of Carbon taxes (or Cap and trade) on the arbitrage of LNG
-Analysis of the economics of multiple options for flare gas reduction in Russia. Including analysis of thousands of Russian oil fields and gas infrastructure to Europe. Large World Bank study.
-Due diligence support to a Bank for an acquisition of a Chilean gas utility . Created models of company cashflows and gas demand.
-Analysis of climate change coalitions of interest network using advanced modeling techniques to provide insight into the creation and the influencing of coalitions
- Creation of a global LNG network model for valuation of portfolios and LNG strategies and tactics
-Development of a gas strategy for an regional oil and gas company including value chain analysis, pricing, portfolios, contracting strategy risk
- Analysis of the use of oil company excess cash; with an assessment of alternative investments including dividend policy, earnings at risk, technology and venture capital investments
and so on.
Expert has a very broad background in energy and risk issues.
|Years: 2000 to 2003||Employer: PA Consulting||Title: Managing consultant||Department: Energy/Risk Management|
Responsibilities:Expert was part of a small energy team in PA Consulting and was based primarily in Houston Texas.
In his time at PA Consulting, he focused most of his efforts on developing risk management tools to assist oil & gas clients with the management of their daily trade & risk management operations.
He also developed techniques for optimizing physical and financial portfolios for clients faced with illiquid markets, such as those found in the oil & gas industry. He was directly responsible to a senior Partner.
- Development and outline valuation of real options on investment opportunities in a major oil and gas Company. Part of 10 man client “lock-away review” of a process, which has traditionally been considered a bad investment. The solutions were both innovative and creative and believe that no other company in this sector has developed such a process and view. Additional value was identified through optimizing trading opportunities within real physical assets. On specific projects we have identified additional value some £100 million more than the base project.
- Development and implementation of Risk Exposure Engines within both an oil and power company to calculate Mark to mark market and Var exposures. Models were custom built for clients. Work included the modelling of physical assets including many exotic options including but not limited to spread/spark, fuel choice optionality, storage and a variety of swing options.
- Use of a real options framework to model a client’s current position on 15 assets. Included the development of a real options model to capture the interaction of up to 20 physical options including switching optionality.
- Real options modelling of a complex system (including thermal options). Modelling of storage system.
Valuation of Risk sharing agreements based on a revenue
|Years: 1992 to 2000||Employer: Arthur Andersen||Title: Head of Consultancy – Petroleum Services Group/Senior Manager||Department: Tax, Petroleum Services Group|
Responsibilities:Directly responsible to a senior Arthur Andersen Partner for management of a standalone consultancy business, which included the detailed analysis of financial and economic data on oil & gas fields in the UKCS, Western and Eastern Europe, West Africa and the Far East and the development of systems thinking and business dynamic models.
Responsible for over 100+ oil and gas consultancy clients all over the world. The group had a turnover of around £3m.
- Management of a planning process involving some 500-1000 assets including publishing and analysis.
- Identification of strategic and economic options on a variety of oil/gas assets and company portfolios.
- Asset and Company valuations.
- Development of a high profile Industry model which dynamically captures capital expenditures and behaviors of oil companies. This model is to be extended to the Caspian, West Africa and other areas. “Systems dynamic model”
- Identification of gas supplies for a regional electricity company including supply and demand analysis and negotiation support. (UK and India)
- Burner Tip Economics of a variety of Countries including Indonesia, India and Europe
- Technology forecasting
- Consultancy work on issues ranging from the impact of the March 1993 Budget, third party processing opportunities, valuation of assets, targeting of asset acquisitions & disposals, industry trends, competitor analysis and gas related issues including the possible deregulation of gas markets in other areas outside of the UK.
- Development of the "Executive Oil Briefing" dealing with important strategic issues in the oil and gas industry.
- Analysis of European gas contract prices (monthly and annual)
- Analysis of European storage and trading hubs and other the use of other alternatives to manage demand and price
- Regular presenter at conferences/seminars on issues associated with European gas issues, reserves, pipelines, joint ventures, economics, strategy and risk management.
|Years: 1982 to 1992||Employer: BP Exploration||Title: Senior Analyst||Department: Various including Gas|
Responsibilities:Expert held a number of technical, commercial and strategic roles at BP Exploration (1982 – 1992) including senior analyst, production engineer and control and instrumentation engineer. Notable achievements include
-Co Designer of patented Subsea Lubricator - Also commissioned and installed
-Commissioned the first offshore Gas lift system in the world
-BP High Development Potential Individual
-Co designer of first produced water re-injection system
-Co writer of first ever strategy for BP pipeline systems
-Developer of tax optimized
Negotiator on LOGGS and Andrew Gas sales and transportation
|Years: 2011 to Present||Agency: EU DG Clima||Role: Consulatnt||Description: Review of papers on a variety of energy related topics including carbon emissions, modelling data quality and Oil sands developments|
|Years: 1998 to 2000||Agency: Scottish Enetrprise||Role: Consulatnt||Description: Development of a high profile industry model that dynamically captures capital expenditures cash-flows and behaviors of oil companies. Provided accurate forecast of spending patterns within oil and gas sectors.|
|Years: 2011 to 2011||Agency: EU JRC Italy||Role: Consultant||Description: Review of the proposals for new policy and legislation on carbon reporting in the energy Industry.|
|Years: 2009 to Present||Agency: World Bank||Role: Consultant||Description: Expert works part-time for the World Bank on clean development mechanisms (CDM), carbon issues and financing, market forecasting, flaring reduction initiatives, small scale gas processing, gas compressor/pipeline implementations and distributed power projects. Provides data,analysis and support.|
|Associations / Societies|
-Institute of Energy
|Licenses / Certifications|
|Awards / Recognition|
|Kepler Prize University of Southampton for Academic Achievement|
|Publications and Patents Summary|
|Have had aritcles published in a number of documents including Oil and Gas journal
Two peer reviewed documents just about to be published by world Bank (2012/2013)
|Expert Witness Experience|
|Have provided expert witness support on gas pricing in the USA|
|Training / Seminars|
|Provides Training courses as part of its normal business.|
|In the course of our many consulting assignments we have been asked to identify market potential for a variety of clients. In some cases we have identified potential vendors/suppliers for a later approach.
Eg Supplier of new technology wanted to know on which oil fields his technology might work, and be profitable for the field or equity owners. From this bottom analysis we identified which companies he should approach including making first contacts on his behalf confidentially.
|Other Relevant Experience|
|Access to a network of specialists in risk management, smart metering, energy economics, Carbon trading and offsets, technology and operations.|
|English||Language of first use|
|Spanish||Also have access to Spanish translator. Can understand|